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Progress is not eternal

Historically, exponential growth has never lasted for a long time, except perhaps in two areas: global GDP and unemployment. These are still growing with no end as yet in sight.

Yet population growth, which many had assumed to be on an exponential trajectory, has long been slowing. It’s already unlikely to top 10 billion. The reason is not a lack of resources — quite the opposite, in fact. A correlation between child mortality and number of children per family was discovered: in short, no one wants to have quite so many kids as before.

Returning to GDP, it too will ultimately hit the asymptote. And unemployment could be the cause — at some point it will approach 100% of the (non-robotic) population, largely because people wouldn’t have anything to strive for. High labor productivity will mean that most needs are met (unemployed people in rich countries are already doing fine), and it will become prohibitively difficult for humans to do anything new and useful. Machines will become ultra-smart, and only a tiny percentage of people will be needed to control them. The upshot is that GDP will stop growing, and AI smartness will plateau — for there shall be no further need for progress.

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Антон Дождиков Человечество развивается по схеме "вызов-ответ" или "стимул-реакция". Описанная ситуация медленного "угасания" очень характерна для жанра антиутопий. По всей видимости, появятся новые вызовы. которые будут двигателем развития. А у людей появится больше возможностей для развития, если, конечно, не будет катастрофически нарастать разрыв между "правящим информационным классом - владельцами роботов" и лишенными доступа к средствам производства. Тогда - рост преступности, ну и реализация самых худших сценариев в жанре "киберпанка" 06 Feb 2019
Austin Spencer Peters It's not that simple, There's always something that robots aren't yet good at. And AI probably won't get that good that fast. Maybe 2070. But I'm sure population growth will slow. 06 Feb 2019